(And very badly compared to other cryptocurrencies.). Use it or lose it. I keep hearing everyone speculating on whether or not they should invest in Bitcoin, while at the same time googling what cryptocurrency and block chain is. Your turn to supply real numbers. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. My heart would break if I said goodbye to $200k. I read an interesting article regarding the price fluctuations, but I cant find it now. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. Thank you. Personally I fail to see the reference between Failhypecoins and retails challenges with shopping online. Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. Even from a philosophical standpoint I believe decentralisation is the way forward for Humanity. Im fine with crypto but not as an investment. Evan Drake In this video from Motley Fool Live, recorded on Feb. 23, Adeney joined. But there are interesting aspects to the technology and what it could develop into. Unless youre a rogue nation trying to dodge sanctions? Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? Bill Batchelor They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices. I keep thinking of that movie where the actor says Explain it to me like Im a 2 year old.. Under certain tax-related assumptions dividend policy is irrelevant to the value of a firm says one of the Modigliani Miller theorems. Simple answer is, they cannot have a secure private Blockchain. Use this 500K wisely and make our planet better! Why would anyone do business with a medium of exchange that is accountable to nobody? Why? All true. Mr. Money Mustache is the website and pseudonym of 48-year-old Canadian-born blogger Peter Adeney. Great text. I would recommend everyone to do their own research because many of what MMM says is plain wrong. Glorkvorn Jeremy Collins The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. No one knows what the stable value of bitcoin will end up, and betting in either direction just seems like a fools errand. But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. Its funny reading your article because while Im a true believer in bitcoin as the internet of money, I feel pretty much the same way as you do about 99% of the rest of crypto. Bitcoin has just 200 billion capitalization currently. Please dont take the Proof of Work Blockchain like Bitcoins as the Blockchain. Now, with that moral sermon out of the way, we might as well talk about why Bitcoin has become such a big thing, so we can separate the usefulness of the underlying technology called Blockchain, from the mania about how people have turned Bitcoin it into a big dumb lottery. So, I PayPald you the $100 for your fingernail clippings before I got to the part about them going for $70,000. Mr. Frugal Toque I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. And like investing in anything, its not a matter of altruism if Im right about the continuity of value in blockchains as measured by the value of its underlying currency, Ill see a healthy return on my investment. Because I still cant pay for groceries in my town without swiping a card or handing over some US dollars. What if anything gives a compelling reason that bitcoin or any one of these other currencies will end up in the group? And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. January 2, 2018, 9:01 pm. Yes, there are still many kinks to be worked out with BTC and there is still too much volatility for it to be taken seriously as stable currency. When we talk about Bitcoin, or Ethereum or any other digital coin, for that matter, neither ponzi nor pyramid are perfectly accurate descriptions for how these systems actually work., The cryptocoins represent a new kind of scam, a Nakamoto Scheme: https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/. However, cryptocurrency is what incentivizes the network to secure a blockchain, so theyre two sides of the same coin. I suspect it will have uses beyond public currency. Bitcoin didnt fly off the charts until a couple of months ago, after (maybe) finding itself in the perfect storm to take a bubble to biblical proportions. When I started to feel some FOMO, I know we have to be close to peak interest. People who have been trading 100s to buy illegal goods must be making out. We? Talk of being blissfully ignorant! Hell if I believed that I would work my ass of taking EVERYTHING I could and putting it into cryptos! Still no fundamentals. Vijay What ICO do you own? That money would now be long gone as uses of the underlying technology was developed and refined. Speculating on bitcoin for this reason only really works so long as there is some new greater fool who joins in on the speculation after you have bought. Stocks and bonds and real estate can all enter into bubbles. It also helps to have wise, centralized humans (the Federal Reserve system and other central banks) guiding the system. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? If FIRE is your goal, Id get out. But its likely just down the toilet. Humanity deserves an alternative to government (aka the financial elite) controlled money. Get listed and sell some shares. In other words, if you truly need it to buy stuff, and thus you need to buy coins from some other person in order to conduct important bits of world commerce that you cant do any other way. Ive never heard of anyone investing 100% of their net worth in a single moment in time that could get penalized for that type of freak market condition. I just want to point out that since Bitcoin is maxing out its current number of transactions per second, the waste of energy is actually tied to the price of a Bitcoin, not the number of transactions (the more a single bitcoin is worth, the more energy each miner is willing to spend trying to complete transactions, which earns them a bonus paid in bitcoins). But boy, are you wrong on this one. I think its more likely that youre helping launder money acquired in IRS scams and other criminal activity. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. If a good provides value to just one person without hurting anyone else, then it provides value to society. You clearly have a contrarian opinion here. Do not give up. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. November 20, 2018, 11:56 am. There is some potential in the future for the blockchain technology but we are just so early that its hard to pick winners. Is having 1-2% of my overall portfolio in cryptocurrency stupid? No, not to me. Inexpensive computers thousands of times more powerful than the best you could buy for $10K in 1990. 1) Adoption curve and network effect, 2) people buying & holding (hodling), 3) people using it to buy stuff or services. This separation is important becausethe usefulness of Blockchain is the primary justification people use for the big dumb Bitcoin lottery. Pretty weak overall. Anyway, in real terms, US stocks have been in a secular bear market since 1999. Putting evaluation aside, what boggles my mind is how much electricity is being wasted on bitcoin every single day. Id much rather invest in shares of Ripple Inc than in XRP. If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. You cannot create more coins than are programmed to ever exist. Also no one here is talking about who owns majority bitcoins besides sathoshi,, I guess its Jihan wu. Why Bitcoin and not another coin? You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Priced in gold, they are still down more than 60%. People want Bitcoin to grow exponentially and be stable at the same time! Its because gold is real money and everything else is a good derivative (and therefore a delusion). No major government will transact in a currency it cannot control. Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. Well said! . Also withdrawing profits consistently so that if a crash comes you are ahead of the game and only playing with the markets money by withdrawing at minimum what you already invested. If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. No problem! A stock is not a ticker symbol; it is a stake in an underlying business. Here is one interesting chart among many that shows exactly that: Even things that can be good investments can be in a bubble. So yes, blockchain = good bitcoin=maybe? Understanding the motivation is a big part of understanding Bitcoin. Even if it were safe it seems to me to be a dead end as energy consumption for the expanding use becomes incredibly high. What, you think rich people dont argue with strangers on the internet? Michael I have accepted lifes nudge and opened up several pages of your blog and am working through them right after this, The Vigilante January 3, 2018, 4:28 pm. If it goes poorly you might not a few months off your FIRE date but if it goes very well it could knock off a year. Even if you win some money through dumb luck, you have lost some time and life energy, which means you have lost. What if you want it for yourself, or have customers or distributors that do? This is so weak. Lottery tickets might be a good investment for you too. Well start with the answer:No, you should not invest in Bitcoin. I let it sit around 2.5% of my savings (Im still growing my nest egg). I am beginning to get it Mattheus. Mr. Money Mustache Reveals A Huge, Hidden Obstacle to Early Retirement. The Money Mustache Community Learning, Sharing, and Teaching Investor Alley Our Crypto Investment strategy (slow and steady investing for the win) . You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. So, Bitcoin is supposed to replace all forms of physical currency in theory because people dont trust banks. > However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. I use purse.io to buy stuff from Amazon. January 19, 2018, 6:45 pm. Its clear from reading the comments that most people dont understand how this works. Cest la vie. Yes, its unstable, and you wouldnt say trade it, but as a long term investment it has been proven itself. 0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes. All points noted. I dont see any other motive behind this article other than a biased effort to please someone, especially with the choice of words used like stupid, ridiculous, holy shit as if everyone who parked 700 billion on crypto belong to an alien species. My disagreements w the article summarized: I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. rollie fingers Im interested to see how this plays out. ), bastringue Thats a really bad equivocation. Is it speculation, sure, but its no different that speculating on the future price of a stock, or oil, or the rental market. The supply of Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. As strong, intellengent Mustachians, we must think critically for ourselves about what is implied by trusting fiat currencies. In that forest there are old bricks. I dont buy that much stuff. Bitcoin and other Cryptos are attractive for that reason and that why people spread this misinformation about it to sway people from backing it. We dont buy average cars or average homes we buy older cars, and smaller homes to cut costs and live a modest life. . This is Part 2 of 2. January 2, 2018, 5:52 pm. It can be laundered. I dont have time to play PC games 24 hours a day, so I might as well use my fancy computer to make some money while Im away from it. I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. You wouldnt say trade it, but as a long term investment it has been proven itself let it around! Just use a database and save yourself the headache illegal goods must making! The expanding use becomes incredibly high want it for yourself, or have customers or distributors that do come with... But I cant find it now ticker symbol ; it is a useful.! 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